We're 10 days away from the Chargers season opener.
With that in mind, here is a roundup of Chargers 2026 win projections and playoff odds heading into the regular season.
Win Projection: 11 wins
In his annual prediction of all 272 regular-season games, Sports Illustrated's Conor Orr had the Chargers topping the AFC West with a record of 11-6. It also meant the Bolts would be the No. 3 seed in the AFC playoff picture.
Win Projection: 10 wins
Bleacher Report's Moe Moton also predicted all 272 regular-season games and had the Chargers finishing at 10-7. That record had the team tied with the Chiefs for second in the AFC West.
Projection: 9.89 wins
Their simulations had the Chargers with the eighth-most projected wins in the NFL, as they also ranked third in the AFC.
View photos of the Chargers initial 53-man roster.
#0 | LB | Daiyan Henley
#0 | LB | Daiyan Henley
#1 | WR | Quentin Johnston
#1 | WR | Quentin Johnston
#2 | S | Elijah Molden
#2 | DB | Elijah Molden
#3 | S | Derwin James, Jr.
#3 | S | Derwin James, Jr.
#4 | CB | Tarheeb Still
#4 | CB | Tarheeb Still
#5 | QB | Trey Lance
#5 | QB | Trey Lance
#6 | LB | Denzel Perryman
#6 | LB | Denzel Perryman
#8 | RB | Omarion Hampton
#8 | RB | Omarion Hampton
#9 | WR | Tre' Harris
#9 | WR | Tre' Harris
#10 | QB | Justin Herbert
#10 | QB | Justin Herbert
#11 | K | Cameron Dicker
#11 | K | Cameron Dicker
#12 | WR | Derius Davis
#12 | WR | Derius Davis
#15 | WR | Ladd McConkey
#15 | WR | Ladd McConkey
#20 | CB | Cam Hart
#20 | CB | Cam Hart
#22 | S | Genesis Smith
#22 | S | Genesis Smith
#23 | S | Tony Jefferson
#23 | S | Tony Jefferson
#24 | CB | Rodney Shelley
#24 | CB | Rodney Shelley
#26 | CB | Donte Jackson
#26 | CB | Donte Jackson
#27 | S | RJ Mickens
#27 | S | RJ Mickens
#28 | RB | Kimani Vidal
#28 | RB | Kimani Vidal
#30 | FB | Alec Ingold
#30 | FB | Alec Ingold
#32 | S | Kendall Williamson
#32 | S | Kendall Williamson
#33 | CB | Deane Leonard
#33 | CB | Deane Leonard
#34 | RB | Keaton Mitchell
#34 | RB | Keaton Mitchell
#43 | LB | Troy Dye
#43 | LB | Troy Dye
#45 | OLB | Tuli Tuipulotu
#45 | OLB | Tuli Tuipulotu
#47 | LS | Josh Harris
#47 | LS | Josh Harris
#48 | OLB | Bud Dupree
#48 | OLB | Bud Dupree
#52 | OLB | Khalil Mack
#52 | OLB | Khalil Mack
#53 | LB | Del'Shawn Phillips
#53 | OLB | Del'Shawn Phillips
#58 | LB | Marlowe Wax
#58 | LB | Marlowe Wax
#60 | OL | Jacob Spomer
#60 | OL | Jacob Spomer
#75 | OL | Logan Taylor
#65 | OL | Logan Taylor
#66 | OL | Jake Slaughter
#66 | OL | Jake Slaughter
#69 | OL | Cole Strange
#69 | OL | Cole Strange
#70 | OL | Rashawn Slater
#70 | T | Rashawn Slater
#73 | OL | Alex Harkey
#73 | OL | Alex Harkey
#74 | OL | Kayode Awosika
#74 | OL | Kayode Awosika
#75 | OL | Trevor Penning
#75 | OL | Trevor Penning
#76 | OL | Joe Alt
#76 | OL | Joe Alt
#77 | OL | Travis Burke
#77 | OL | Travis Burke
#79 | OL | Trey Pipkins III
#79 | G/T | Trey Pipkins III
#83 | TE | David Njoku
#83 | TE | David Njoku
#84 | WR | KeAndre Lambert-Smith
#84 | WR | KeAndre Lambert-Smith
#86 | TE | Oronde Gadsden
#86 | TE | Oronde Gadsden
#88 | TE | Charlie Kolar
#88 | TE | Charlie Kolar
#89 | WR | Brenen Thompson
#89 | WR | Brenen Thompson
#90 | OLB | Akheem Mesidor
#90 | OLB | Akheem Mesidor
#91 | DL | Nick Barrett
#91 | DL | Nick Barrett
#92 | DL | Justin Eboigbe
#92 | DL | Justin Eboigbe
#93 | DL | Teair Tart
#93 | DL | Teair Tart
#94 | DL | Dalvin Tomlinson
#94 | DL | Dalvin Tomlinson
#99 | DL | Jamaree Caldwell
#99 | DL | Jamaree Caldwell
Projection: 9.8 wins
Using their Football Power Index, the Bolts rank fifth in the AFC in projected wins as the model also has them with a 66.2 percent chance to make the playoffs in 2026.
Projection: 9.4 wins
The Athletic's Austin Mock used his projection model to break down the AFC and had the Chargers slightly behind the Chiefs in wins. The 9.4 wins has the Chargers as seventh in the AFC as they also have a 55.3 percent chance to make the playoffs and five percent Super Bowl odds,the fourth highest in the conference.
Projection: 9 wins
Nate Davis of USA Today projected the win totals of all 32 NFL teams ahead of the season and had the Bolts finishing the year with nine wins.
