We're 10 days away from the Chargers season opener.
With that in mind, here is a roundup of Chargers 2026 win projections and playoff odds heading into the regular season.
Win Projection: 11 wins
In his annual prediction of all 272 regular-season games, Sports Illustrated's Conor Orr had the Chargers topping the AFC West with a record of 11-6. It also meant the Bolts would be the No. 3 seed in the AFC playoff picture.
Win Projection: 10 wins
Bleacher Report's Moe Moton also predicted all 272 regular-season games and had the Chargers finishing at 10-7. That record had the team tied with the Chiefs for second in the AFC West.
Projection: 9.89 wins
Their simulations had the Chargers with the eighth-most projected wins in the NFL, as they also ranked third in the AFC.
View photos of the Chargers 2026 roster.
#0 | LB | Daiyan Henley
#0 | LB | Daiyan Henley
#1 | WR | Quentin Johnston
#1 | WR | Quentin Johnston
#2 | S | Elijah Molden
#2 | DB | Elijah Molden
#3 | S | Derwin James, Jr.
#3 | S | Derwin James, Jr.
#4 | CB | Tarheeb Still
#4 | CB | Tarheeb Still
#7 | QB | DJ Uiagalelei
#7 | QB | DJ Uiagalelei
#8 | RB | Omarion Hampton
#8 | RB | Omarion Hampton
#9 | WR | Tre' Harris
#9 | WR | Tre' Harris
#10 | QB | Justin Herbert
#10 | QB | Justin Herbert
#11 | K | Cameron Dicker
#11 | K | Cameron Dicker
#12 | WR | Derius Davis
#12 | WR | Derius Davis
#15 | WR | Ladd McConkey
#15 | WR | Ladd McConkey
#16 | P | JK Scott
#16 | P | JK Scott
#20 | CB | Cam Hart
#20 | CB | Cam Hart
#22 | S | Genesis Smith
#22 | S | Genesis Smith
#23 | S | Tony Jefferson
#23 | S | Tony Jefferson
#24 | CB | Rodney Shelley
#24 | CB | Rodney Shelley
#26 | CB | Donte Jackson
#26 | CB | Donte Jackson
#27 | S | RJ Mickens
#27 | S | RJ Mickens
#28 | RB | Kimani Vidal
#28 | RB | Kimani Vidal
#32 | S | Kendall Williamson
#32 | S | Kendall Williamson
#33 | CB | Deane Leonard
#33 | CB | Deane Leonard
#34 | RB | Keaton Mitchell
#34 | RB | Keaton Mitchell
#40 | TE | Hayden Rucci
#40 | TE | Hayden Rucci
#43 | LB | Troy Dye
#43 | LB | Troy Dye
#44 | FB/DL | Scott Matlock
#44 | FB/DL | Scott Matlock
#45 | OLB | Tuli Tuipulotu
#45 | OLB | Tuli Tuipulotu
#47 | LS | Josh Harris
#47 | LS | Josh Harris
#48 | OLB | Bud Dupree
#48 | OLB | Bud Dupree
#50 | OLB | Caleb Murphy
#50 | OLB | Caleb Murphy
#52 | OLB | Khalil Mack
#52 | OLB | Khalil Mack
#53 | LB | Del'Shawn Phillips
#53 | OLB | Del'Shawn Phillips
#58 | LB | Marlowe Wax
#58 | LB | Marlowe Wax
#60 | OL | Jacob Spomer
#60 | OL | Jacob Spomer
#75 | OL | Logan Taylor
#65 | OL | Logan Taylor
#66 | OL | Jake Slaughter
#66 | OL | Jake Slaughter
#69 | OL | Cole Strange
#69 | OL | Cole Strange
#71 | G | Branson Taylor
#71 | G | Branson Taylor
#73 | OL | Alex Harkey
#73 | OL | Alex Harkey
#74 | OL | Kayode Awosika
#74 | OL | Kayode Awosika
#76 | OL | Joe Alt
#76 | OL | Joe Alt
#77 | OL | Travis Burke
#77 | OL | Travis Burke
#82 | WR | Theo Wease Jr.
#82 | WR | Theo Wease Jr.
#84 | WR | KeAndre Lambert-Smith
#84 | WR | KeAndre Lambert-Smith
#86 | TE | Oronde Gadsden
#86 | TE | Oronde Gadsden
#88 | TE | Charlie Kolar
#88 | TE | Charlie Kolar
#89 | WR | Brenen Thompson
#89 | WR | Brenen Thompson
#90 | OLB | Akheem Mesidor
#90 | OLB | Akheem Mesidor
#91 | DL | Nick Barrett
#91 | DL | Nick Barrett
#92 | DL | Justin Eboigbe
#92 | DL | Justin Eboigbe
#93 | DL | Teair Tart
#93 | DL | Teair Tart
#94 | DL | Dalvin Tomlinson
#94 | DL | Dalvin Tomlinson
#99 | DL | Jamaree Caldwell
#99 | DL | Jamaree Caldwell
#6 | QB | Jake Browning
#6 | QB | Jake Browning
#25 | LB | Junior Colson
#25 | LB | Junior Colson
#29 | CB | Kaiir Elam
#31 | RB | Gregory Desrosiers
#31 | RB | Gregory Desrosiers
#35 | RB | Amar Johnson
#35 | RB | Amar Johnson
#37 | CB | Isas Waxter
#37 | CB | Isas Waxter
#39 | WR | Luke Grimm
#39 | WR | Luke Grimm
#51 | OLB | Andre Carter II
#51 | OLB | Andre Carter II
#57 | LB | Lander Barton
#57 | LB | Lander Barton
#61 | T | Daniel Brunskill
#61 | T | Daniel Brunskill
#64 | DL | Terry Webb
#64 | DL | Terry Webb
#68 | C | Josh Kaltenberger
#68 | C | Josh Kaltenberger
#78 | T | Laekin Vakalahi
#78 | T | Laekin Vakalahi
#79 | OL | Trey Pipkins III
#79 | G/T | Trey Pipkins III
#81 | TE | Patrick Herbert
#81 | TE | Patrick Herbert
#87 | WR | Gary Jennings
#87 | WR | Gary Jennings
#96 | DL | Myles Adams
#96 | DL | Myles Adams
#49 | TE | Evan Svoboda
#49 | TE | Evan Svoboda
#5 | QB | Trey Lance
#5 | QB | Trey Lance
#6 | LB | Denzel Perryman
#6 | LB | Denzel Perryman
#30 | FB | Alec Ingold
#30 | FB | Alec Ingold
#63 | C | Tyler Biadasz
#63 | C | Tyler Biadasz
#70 | OL | Rashawn Slater
#70 | T | Rashawn Slater
#75 | OL | Trevor Penning
#75 | OL | Trevor Penning
#83 | TE | David Njoku
#83 | TE | David Njoku
#67 | T | Isaiah World
#67 | T | Isaiah World
Projection: 9.8 wins
Using their Football Power Index, the Bolts rank fifth in the AFC in projected wins as the model also has them with a 66.2 percent chance to make the playoffs in 2026.
Projection: 9.4 wins
The Athletic's Austin Mock used his projection model to break down the AFC and had the Chargers slightly behind the Chiefs in wins. The 9.4 wins has the Chargers as seventh in the AFC as they also have a 55.3 percent chance to make the playoffs and five percent Super Bowl odds,the fourth highest in the conference.
Projection: AFC Championship Game appearance
PFT's Josh Alper had the Chargers making a run to the AFC Championship game after entering the playoffs as the No. 5 seed in the conference. His colleague, Michael David Smith, also had the Chargers winning a playoff game before falling in the divisional round.
Projection: 9 wins
Nate Davis of USA Today projected the win totals of all 32 NFL teams ahead of the season and had the Bolts finishing the year with nine wins.
