5 Takeaways: How the Chargers Control Their Destiny for AFC West Title

Dec 22, 2025 at 03:11 PM

Eric Smith

Editorial Director

The Chargers are 11-4 after Sunday's 34-17 win over the Cowboys.

Here are five takeaways from Chargers Head Coach Jim Harbaugh's Monday press conference.

1. Chargers AFC West chances

The Bolts are red hot as Harbaugh's team has won four straight games and seven of eight overall.

And the Chargers can clinch a playoff spot as early as Monday night if the Colts lose or tie.

The Bolts sit at 11-4 — one of five teams in the AFC with at least 11 wins — and are currently the No. 5 seed in the AFC.

But don't pencil in the Chargers as a Wild Card team just yet.

If the Bolts win their final two games — Week 17 at home against Houston and Week 18 in Denver — then the Chargers would claim the AFC West.

Harbaugh's thoughts?

"It means that this game Saturday against the Texans is the most important game of the year," Harbaugh said. "Getting guys fresh, getting guys ready, getting guys prepared is top of mind."

The Broncos currently lead the AFC West with a 12-3 record and are also the top seed in the conference.

But no matter what Denver does in Week 17 — the Broncos play at Kansas City on Christmas Day — the Chargers will have a chance to win the division if they beat the Texans.

A win over Houston, of course, would put the Chargers at 12 wins heading into the regular-season finale.

Denver will either have 12 or 13 wins heading into Week 18 but that number doesn't affect the Chargers.

If the Broncos were to lose to the Chiefs to stay at 12 wins, then the Chargers would win the AFC West with a Week 18 win by getting to 13 victories.

But even if the Broncos win Thursday to get to 13 wins, the Chargers would then equal Denver win's total with two more wins ... and the Bolts would win the AFC West because they would have swept Denver in 2025.

Harbaugh said the Chargers are well aware of where they sit in the standings, but noted a possible AFC West crown isn't feasible unless the Bolts take care of business on Saturday against Houston.

"It's pretty simple to look at and not hard math to figure," Harbaugh said. "So, this week, this game, the most important one of the season."

According to The Athletic, the Chargers have greater than a 99 percent chance to make the playoffs. NFL Next Gen Stats also has the Bolts postseason chances at greater than 99 percent while ESPN has those odds at 99 percent.

2. Recapping the Cowboys win

The Chargers dominated the second half against the Cowboys on Sunday, outscoring the Cowboys by a total of 13-0 as all three phases kicked into high gear.

But Harbaugh made sure to note that the first half was a dogfight against the Cowboys and that Dallas took the lead three separate times before halftime.

No worries for the Bolts, who showed their trademark resiliency to rally and notch their 11th win.

"I think we all can learn ... something I've noticed and have loved about this team, I think all can probably see it, probably came through the TV, this team never gives up," Harbaugh said.

"It doesn't matter, they don't flinch, they don't fold," Harbaugh said. "No matter what's happening, you could be punched right in the tip of the nose, see some adversity and team just keeps pressing forward."

As for some standout individual performances in Week 16, Harbaugh spotlighted quarterback Justin Herbert's 300-yard outing that featured a pair of touchdown passes.

"As far as quarterback performances go, that was a Picasso," Harbaugh said. "Just incredible play by him. Just dialed in, like he always is. It's that way every single week with numbing repetition, how well he plays."

Harbaugh was also asked about Omarion Hampton, who tallied 85 rushing yards and a touchdown on just 16 carries.

The rookie running back, who missed seven games with an ankle injury earlier this season, had 10 carries that went for at least five yards on Sunday.

"So good. And the speed, he got on some of those edges," Harbaugh said of Hampton. "Guys had angles and he just outran them.

"Some of those collisions, he's seeking. It's almost like, I'm going to say Walter Payton-like," Harbaugh continued. "Just cause that's, in my mind of a running back that's trying to be the aggressor, not the aggressee.

"He gets on that sideline, he's looking to get up field. He's looking to deliver the contact. I think he's really getting back in that rhythm he had before he went out," Harbaugh added.