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How Soon Could the Chargers Clinch a Playoff Spot?

ChargersPlayoffClinch

Welcome back to the Chargers Mailbag!

We'll run a Mailbag each week during the regular season. Send in submissions for the Mailbag on Twitter @EricLSmith or by email at eric.smith@chargers.nfl.com.

Off we go...

How soon can the Chargers clinch a playoff spot? (Louis via email)

Not to be the bearer of bad news right away, but the Chargers cannot clinch a playoff spot this weekend.

And that's OK, it simply means the Bolts have some work to do in the weeks ahead.

But if we're looking at a timeline, I believe the earliest the Chargers would be able to clinch a postseason spot is in Week 17 ... which, ironically enough, is when the Bolts secured a spot last season.

As it stands now, the Chargers are currently 9-4 and in the fifth seed in the AFC playoff picture. The teams above the Bolts in the standings all either have more wins (11 for the Patriots and Broncos) or are leading their respective divisions (the nine-win Jaguars and seven-win Steelers).

The Texans and Colts each have eight wins and are below the Bolts while others such as the Chiefs, Ravens and Dolphins only have six wins.

The simple math is this: if the Chargers win their next three games — against the Chiefs, Cowboys and Texans — that would get them to 12 wins.

Those dozen wins would mean Kansas City, Baltimore and Miami couldn't catch the Chargers. It would also mean Houston could only get to 11 total wins because the Chargers would beat the Texans in Week 17 in this scenario.

And, most importantly, the Colts would need to lose at least one game so there maximum win total would only be 11 wins.

In this very hypothetical scenario, let's say the Colts lose to the Seahawks this weekend and drop to 8-6. Even if they win their final three games to get to 11 wins, the Chargers would already be in because their proposed three-game win streak would have them at 12 wins.

Make sense?

One final thing to consider here: if the Chargers stay hot, the AFC West crown would still very much be in play if the Broncos were to drop at least one of their next three games against the Packers, Jaguars and Chiefs.

As long as the Chargers are a game back of Denver in the win column heading into Week 18, the Bolts have a chance to win the division.

So, if the Bolts go 2-1 in their next three games to climb to 11-5 and the Broncos go 1-2 to get to 12-4, the Chargers could then claim the AFC West with a win in the regular-season finale.

According to The Athletic, the Chargers currently have a 13 percent chance to win the division. But those odds jump to 32 percent if the Chargers win and the Broncos lose Sunday.

Is it a longshot right now? Perhaps.

But it's not completely out of the question if things break the Chargers way in the coming weeks.

View photos of the Chargers 53-man roster as of Dec. 10, 2025.

How do you think Omarion Hampton looked in his return? (Greg via email)

Good!

The final stats show Omarion Hampton had a solid 56 yards on 13 carries, good for an average of 4.3 yards per carry. He also caught a 4-yard pass for a touchdown and had two catches for 11 total yards.

Hampton showed good burst and power as he had three runs of 10-plus yards (11, 15 and 18 yards) but was also stuffed on a few carries, including a minus-4 yard run that hurt his stat line.

Overall, Hampton looked fine and will likely be better going forward now that he's gotten back in the swing of things.

Is Justin Herbert human or no? (Jerry via email)

At this point, I'm not sure.

Let's recap.

Not only did Justin Herbert play Monday with a broken left hand, he did so after having surgery just seven days prior.

And he then willed the Chargers to a win partly because he tried to stiff arm an Eagles defender with said broken hand!!

Read that sentence again.

This is my 10th season in the NFL. Herbert is on the very short list of the toughest players I have covered and, if I'm being honest, is probably No. 1 on that list.

He's definitely in the top spot on Chargers Head Coach Jim Harbaugh's rankings.

"He's a superhero. He's a competitive maniac," Harbaugh said. "He was even stiff-arming guys with a broken hand, and he had surgery a week ago.

"It felt like we were in a movie where the quarterback's doing these things and you get to a point where you go, 'OK, this is getting a little unrealistic,' you know? That's what it felt like to me," Harbaugh added. "He refuses to lose [and] he's as tough as they get. He's a superhero quarterback."

I've said this before numerous time this season: Herbert should 100% be in the NFL MVP consideration this season.

He's not going to win it. But he should at least get some votes. Just imagine where the Bolts would be without him.

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