Skip to main content
Advertising

Chargers Official Site | Los Angeles Chargers - chargers.com

How the Chargers Can Capture the No. 1 Seed in AFC Playoffs

ChargersPlayoffChances

Welcome back to the Chargers Mailbag!

We'll run a Mailbag each week during the regular season. Send in submissions for the Mailbag on Twitter @EricLSmith or by email at eric.smith@chargers.nfl.com.

Off we go...

How could the Chargers get the No. 1 seed? (Alex via email)

The Chargers only have two regular-season games left, but there is much to be decided over the next 10 days or so.

Including the chances that Jim Harbaugh's team ends up with the No. 1 seed in the AFC.

Before we get into the scenarios, know that the data shows a longshot as The Athletic only has 3 percent odds that the Chargers claim the top spot in the AFC.

But it is possible, however, and would start to get real if the Bolts win their final two games over the Texans and Broncos. That, of course, would mean Chargers win the AFC West and finish with a 13-4 record.

If the Bolts indeed win out, that would mean the current No. 1 seed — the 12-3 Broncos — drop to a Wild Card spot by virtue of the Chargers winning the division.

However, the Chargers would also need the 11-4 Jaguars and the 12-3 Patriots to each lose a game over the next two weeks.

The problem for the Chargers is that Jacksonville and New England are both rolling right now and are favored to win in Week 17.

The Jaguars are 6.5-point favorites over the Colts while the Patriots are 13.5-point favorites over the Jets.

The Bolts would then have to rely on both teams to lose in Week 18 when each squad would still be playing for the No. 1 seed themselves.

Jacksonville hosts Tennessee in Week 18 while New England hosts Miami, a pair of opponents that have already been eliminated from the playoffs.

So, are the odds slim? Sure.

But given the way this wild NFL season has played out, never say never.

Plus, while a pair of Chargers wins might eventually not get them the No. 1 seed, it would ensure a home playoff game.

Lots of to figure out in the final two weeks, but this is the best time of year if you ask me.

Philip Rivers is back and looking good. I know his high school team is was watching. How many of the Chargers are watching and what are the vibes like for Phil?? (JT via Twitter)

Rivers is slinging it like it's 2015. And it's so fun to watch.

And you can bet the Chargers are paying attention. Derwin James and Keenan Allen both said a few weeks ago that they were fired up for Rivers to return.

And Justin Herbert weighed in Tuesday when I asked him how he felt about the Chargers clinching a playoff spot.

"It's really cool. I think it's a sign of all the hard work we put together as a team this year," Herbert said. "All three phases, we play for each other and I think that's what's so special about this team. Mixed emotions watching the game last night.

"Obviously, I was rooting for Phil and everything. At the same time you want to get a playoff spot. It was just really cool to watch him, too," Herbert added.

Herbert probably speaks for most Chargers fans with those words. While everyone loves Rivers and is rooting for him, the Colts recent slide allowed the Bolts to get into the playoffs on Monday.

Those rooting interests change this week, however, as the Bolts will surely be rooting for the Colts to upset the Jaguars.

As mentioned above, that would help the Chargers potentially clinch the AFC's top seed.

Either way, you have to marvel at Rivers still looking like a bonafide NFL quarterback at 44 years old.

Chargers would only have one, or at worst two, losses with Joe Alt & Rashawn Slater. (Ethan via Twitter)

Perhaps.

And that thought certainly lends some excitement for what the Chargers could look like in 2026 when both players are expected to return at full health.

But it's a moot point to think about what could have been this season with the pair of elite tackles.

Slater was injured before the season even began so the Chargers have had to adapt without him for awhile.

Alt has missed more than half the season and has been out since Week 9. The Bolts have played more games without him than games where he was in the lineup.

The point we need to focus on here is the resiliency of players and coaches to keep trucking without two of (probably) the Chargers top five offensive players. And Slater and Alt might be Nos. 2 and 3 on that list behind Herbert.

The thought of those two coming back next year is awesome. But Harbaugh's squad has its eyes set on a deep playoff run, which would be even more rewarding given Alt and Slater's absence.

View photos of the Chargers 53-man roster as of Dec. 10, 2025.

Related Content

Advertising