A Look at Chargers Playoff Seeding Scenarios in Week 17

Dec 26, 2025 at 08:01 AM

Eric Smith

Editorial Director

The Chargers have clinched a playoff berth and will be playing past Week 18.

But which seed will the Bolts earn? And who could the Chargers play?

With a playoff berth secure, the Chargers can still end up in multiple postseason seeds, including the No. 1 spot in the AFC.

And the AFC West title is still up for grabs, too. That math on that is simple: the Chargers will win the division with two more regular-season victories.

The Chargers and Texans play Saturday at SoFi Stadium. Kickoff is at 1:30 p.m. (PT).

The Chargers-Texans betting line shows the Bolts are slight favorites for Saturday.

Here's a breakdown of possible seeding and opponent scenarios for the Bolts heading into Week 17:

No. 1 Seed

Yes, the Chargers are still alive for the top seed in the AFC.

In order to get this spot — which would earn the Bolts the lone first-round bye in the conference — the Chargers needs to win out and get some help.

The first part of the equation is simple: the Chargers must beat the Texans and Broncos in Weeks 17 and 18, respectively.

The Bolts would also need the Jaguars and Patriots to each lose one of their final two games.

If that all happens, the Chargers and Patriots would both finish 13-4 and the Jaguars would end up at 12-5.

The Bolts would win the tiebreaker over New England due to a better conference record at 10-2 compared to 9-3 for the Patriots.

If the Chargers manage to get the No. 1 seed, they would be off for the Wild Card Round before hosting the lowest AFC seed remaining in the Divisional Round.

The Bolts would also have home-field advantage in the postseason up until the Super Bowl.

No. 2 Seed

Getting the No. 2 seed would also require the Chargers to win both remaining regular-season games.

But let's say the Patriots win out and claim the No. 1 seed, the Bolts would then need the Jaguars to lose one game to move the Chargers into the second spot.

In this scenario, New England would be 14-3 while the Chargers would finish 13-4 and the Jaguars end up at 12-5.

Conversely, if the Jaguars win out, the Patriots would then need to drop a game as the Chargers win their final two games.

In this scenario, Jacksonville, the Chargers and New England would all be 13-4.

Jacksonville and the Chargers would have the better conference record of the three teams at 10-2, pushing the Patriots to the third seed. The Jaguars would get the No. 1 seed due to their head-to-head win in Week 11.

Having the No. 2 seed would mean the Chargers host the No. 7 seed in the Wild Card Round and then host a Divisional Round game if the Bolts advance.

And, if the top seed gets knocked out, the Bolts would then host the AFC title game at SoFi Stadium.

No. 3 Seed

This one is fairly simple.

If the Chargers, Patriots and Jaguars all win out, the Bolts will be the No. 3 seed.

New England's pair of wins would move the Patriots to 14-3 and the No. 1 spot, while the Jaguars and Chargers would both finish at 13-4.

Again, Jacksonville's Week 11 win would give it the tiebreaker over the Bolts.

The No. 3 seed would ensure at least one home playoff game for the Chargers, but that could be two games at SoFi Stadium if the second seed gets eliminated in the Wild Card Round.

No. 4 Seed

The Chargers cannot be the No. 4 seed, which is going to be the winner of the AFC North.